Are we in a recession already?
According to the latest data it seems or we are already or very close, at least in the US, and if the US economy is in recession and still being the biggest in terms of nominal $ in the world, probably the world economy will follow suit, even as the EM economies are forecast to keep growing at healthy levels, but not enough to off set the weak US and European economic present state.
Let's look at this great chart (courtesy of John Mauldin and street talk advisor's):
As we can see in this chart the US economy is already or very close to recession, and even this being a new formed index, not just the creator have a great street credentials but also the components they used are leading indicators and highly correlated to predicting correctly recessions/growth!
At the same time we have the serious problems in Europe, where not just governments are cutting spending, to balance their overstretched finances plus the banking system there is insolvent, at least mostly of it, therefore will create more pressure in the GDP growth because banks are cutting the amount of money loaned to the broad economy, as a result we saw for i.e last week a lower then forecast German GDP, which is not just the powerhouse of Europe but also is the backer of the ESFS fund created to support the weaker peripheral economies as the case of the PIGS.
The last week, after a start with a relief rally, saw in the end, big losses in all major indexes, not just for the lack of conviction by investor in this market but also because August is a weak month anyway as many traders/investors are in holidays.
In my opinion we still didn't saw a low in this market, as the bond markets are telling us, because it keep going lower in terms of yields, which is a sign that worst times are to come, when investors are willing to accept rela negatives yields to park their money, this is normally a good sign and more we are not seeing an inverted yield, which means recession on the way or already present, because of the QE programs created by the FED which artificially maintains short term yields low.
Resuming WE ARE GOING LOWER!!
Follow my live trades through twitter @techcherry!!
